It is reprehensible to make money from ultimate sacrifices by our soldiers, but you cannot separate business from war. The situation in Iraq has influenced stocks for over a decade now. Reconstruction and crude oil riches will continue to shape our stock market indices in the years to come.
Peace makes business sense after war. The world saw that with Germany and Japan. Afghanistan has not shaped up as yet. However, equations with other nations need not always involve physical violence. The constellation that has emerged from the ashes of the Soviet Union is certainly capital-friendly. China has made awesome inroads in Africa, though they have desisted from the pyrotechnics of shock.
Business cycles are not in synch across sectors. The upswings of aerospace and defense stocks must start long before any serious liberation or preemption of terrorists can commence in earnest. You can switch to civilian jets once everything has been flattened, but submarine and aircraft carrier enterprises do not fit horizontal integration as easily.
Small-capital stocks have it better in peace, though only corporations with powerful executives at helms can steer profits in the name of world security. A Mom-and-Pop show cannot bid to cater to the Army, but there is no dearth of small business opportunities once the situation in Iran is dealt with.
There are differences in withdrawal timetables, but peace has bipartisan support for all scenarios after the present administration fades away. This could be our best bet for pulling the investment market from free-fall. Profiting from peace is light on the conscience, so look for stocks with Baghdad and Basra on agendas.
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