A higher gold price is inevitable for a variety of fundamental reasons, not least of which is the yellow metal’s limited ‘available’ supply against a backdrop of overall growing demand from private parties across the globe. But Tangent Capital’s Jim Rickards points out that strong demand for gold coming from that very same global banking system should buoy the gold price, as well, every step of the way to, maybe, just maybe, Jim Sinclair’s $12,500 price tag.
Rickards explains the simple dynamic between the three dominant currencies in play during the epic global re-balancing act—the U.S. dollar, euro and the yuan (renminbi). Each government behind these currency will ensure a long-term tailwind to the gold price for, we hope, many years, because an abrupt revaluation of the gold price could suggest untold social unrest, revolutions and war—which is a scenario Swiss money manager Marc Faber predicts.
“The main event is the three-ring circus of the U.S., Europe and China and their respective currencies, the dollar, euro and the yuan,” he wrote in a piece posted on King World News on Sept. 18. “The dynamic is straightforward – all three would like a cheaper currency, relative to the others, to help exports.”
Correct. Each country has its own constituency to reasonably satisfy under the most difficult of circumstances since at least as far back as the Great Depression. Ultimately, no one wants a trade war, though during political seasons the hyped jingoism stirred up among pols to garner votes from the Colosseum crowd rears its ugly head as the true degenerates of societies play the old as it is tired game of tribalism rhetoric.
Cutting through the politics, Rickards explains why owning gold is important during the present state of war, a currency war, between the three blocks.
“This dynamic plays out as you might expect. The U.S. devalues against yuan and the euro – it gets all of what it wants. China revalues upward against the dollar, but keeps a peg to the euro – it gets half of what it wants,” he explained. “And the euro remains strong against the dollar and pegged against yuan – so it gets none of what it wants. This has been the prevailing paradigm since June when the Chinese finally let the yuan appreciate against the dollar in a serious way.”
Aside from the stresses between Germany and the PIIGS as a sequel to Rickard’s thesis, Beijing has a big problem with the way this currency war is playing out. That is, rapid inflation in China.
There is no way that China, nor any country, can escape rising consumer prices under the scenario, above. But, between the U.S. dollar and the euro, representing 88% of total central bank reserves, China has been, and will continue to be mired in inflation for ever at the pace of devaluation of the dollar and euro must achieve to right global imbalances between debtors and creditors.
A U.S. or European citizen can absorb some inflation due to relatively high per capita purchasing power parities (though painful to the bottom of the economic ladder), but China’s $8,500 per capita PPP is too low to keep the natives calm during this expected protracted process. Do Tunisia, Egypt and Libya come to mind? All three countries weigh in with under $4,000 per capita PPPs.
The plan, then? Beijing must grab as much gold for its central bank and its people as fast as possible without disrupting the gold price too much in an effort to absorb the inflationary effects of the depreciating U.S. dollar and euro of the future.
According to a WikiLeaks cable,
“China increases its gold reserves in order to kill two birds with one stone”
The China Radio International sponsored newspaper World News Journal (Shijie Xinwenbao)(04/28): “According to China’s National Foreign Exchanges Administration China ‘s gold reserves have recently increased. Currently, the majority of its gold reserves have been located in the U.S. and European countries. The U.S. and Europe have always suppressed the rising price of gold. They intend to weaken gold’s function as an international reserve currency. They don’t want to see other countries turning to gold reserves instead of the U.S. dollar or Euro. Therefore, suppressing the price of gold is very beneficial for the U.S. in maintaining the U.S. dollar’s role as the international reserve currency. China’s increased gold reserves will thus act as a model and lead other countries towards reserving more gold. Large gold reserves are also beneficial in promoting the internationalization of the RMB.”
It’s laughable to think the gold price means nothing to the Fed and ECB (Jeff Christian, are you listening?). But, in this case, the price of gold is important to Beijing, as well. As China accumulates gold to buttresses its reserves, a steady rise in the gold price, not a rapid one, is preferable to its long-term plan to introduce the yuan as a fully convertible reserve currency—backed by gold. Strong evidence from bullion dealers, KWN’s anonymous London trader, Jame Turk and Eric Sprott indicate that Beijing was the big buyer (India, too) during gold’s drop to below $1,600 per ounce.
How this will all play out and who will get what they want from the new reserve currency regime down the road is unclear, but it’s no matter, according to Rickards. Throughout history, the winners of currency devaluations have a 100 percent track record of emerging from the heap of paper. No exceptions.
He concluded his piece, “ . . . it is not quite true there are no winners in a currency war. There is always one winner – gold.”
Just in from the Financial Times of London:
Analysts expect the September import surge to continue until the end of the year as Chinese gold buyers snap up the yellow metal in advance of Chinese New Year, China’s key gold-buying period.
“In September we saw some bargain hunters come back into the market on the price dip,” said Janet Kong, managing director of research for CICC, the Chinese investment bank.
Data from the Hong Kong government showed that China imported a record 56.9 tonnes in September, a sixfold increase from 2010. Monthly gold imports for most of 2010 and this year run at about 10 tonnes, but buying jumped in July, August and September. In the three-month period, China imported from Hong Kong about 140 tonnes, more than the roughly 120 tonnes for the whole 2010.
The last two months of this year are likely to see China’s gold imports surge further ahead of Chinese New Year, supporting gold prices, according to Ms Kong. “We’ve noted a quite strong seasonality in gold prices, typically prices go up in the months before the Chinese New year.
Additional articles published by Beacon Equity Research can be found on their website at www.BeaconEquity.com
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